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Individual outcome prediction models for patients with COVID-19 based on their first day of admission to the intensive care unit.
Rigo-Bonnin, R, Gumucio-Sanguino, VD, Pérez-Fernández, XL, Corral-Ansa, L, Fuset-Cabanes, M, Pons-Serra, M, Hernández-Jiménez, E, Ventura-Pedret, S, Boza-Hernández, E, Gasa, M, et al
Clinical biochemistry. 2022;:13-21
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Abstract
BACKGROUND Currently, good prognosis and management of critically ill patients with COVID-19 are crucial for developing disease management guidelines and providing a viable healthcare system. We aimed to propose individual outcome prediction models based on binary logistic regression (BLR) and artificial neural network (ANN) analyses of data collected in the first 24 h of intensive care unit (ICU) admission for patients with COVID-19 infection. We also analysed different variables for ICU patients who survived and those who died. METHODS Data from 326 critically ill patients with COVID-19 were collected. Data were captured on laboratory variables, demographics, comorbidities, symptoms and hospital stay related information. These data were compared with patient outcomes (survivor and non-survivor patients). BLR was assessed using the Wald Forward Stepwise method, and the ANN model was constructed using multilayer perceptron architecture. RESULTS The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the ANN model was significantly larger than the BLR model (0.917 vs 0.810; p < 0.001) for predicting individual outcomes. In addition, ANN model presented similar negative predictive value than the BLR model (95.9% vs 94.8%). Variables such as age, pH, potassium ion, partial pressure of oxygen, and chloride were present in both models and they were significant predictors of death in COVID-19 patients. CONCLUSIONS Our study could provide helpful information for other hospitals to develop their own individual outcome prediction models based, mainly, on laboratory variables. Furthermore, it offers valuable information on which variables could predict a fatal outcome for ICU patients with COVID-19.
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Genetic Screening for TLR7 Variants in Young and Previously Healthy Men With Severe COVID-19.
Solanich, X, Vargas-Parra, G, van der Made, CI, Simons, A, Schuurs-Hoeijmakers, J, Antolí, A, Del Valle, J, Rocamora-Blanch, G, Setién, F, Esteller, M, et al
Frontiers in immunology. 2021;:719115
Abstract
INTRODUCTION Loss-of-function TLR7 variants have been recently reported in a small number of males to underlie strong predisposition to severe COVID-19. We aimed to determine the presence of these rare variants in young men with severe COVID-19. METHODS We prospectively studied males between 18 and 50 years-old without predisposing comorbidities that required at least high-flow nasal oxygen to treat COVID-19. The coding region of TLR7 was sequenced to assess the presence of potentially deleterious variants. RESULTS TLR7 missense variants were identified in two out of 14 patients (14.3%). Overall, the median age was 38 (IQR 30-45) years. Both variants were not previously reported in population control databases and were predicted to be damaging by in silico predictors. In a 30-year-old patient a maternally inherited variant [c.644A>G; p.(Asn215Ser)] was identified, co-segregating in his 27-year-old brother who also contracted severe COVID-19. A second variant [c.2797T>C; p.(Trp933Arg)] was found in a 28-year-old patient, co-segregating in his 24-year-old brother who developed mild COVID-19. Functional testing of this variant revealed decreased type I and II interferon responses in peripheral mononuclear blood cells upon stimulation with the TLR7 agonist imiquimod, confirming a loss-of-function effect. CONCLUSIONS This study supports a rationale for the genetic screening for TLR7 variants in young men with severe COVID-19 in the absence of other relevant risk factors. A diagnosis of TLR7 deficiency could not only inform on treatment options for the patient, but also enables pre-symptomatic testing of at-risk male relatives with the possibility of instituting early preventive and therapeutic interventions.
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Factors Associated with the Development of Tertiary Peritonitis in Critically Ill Patients.
Ballus, J, Lopez-Delgado, JC, Sabater-Riera, J, Perez-Fernandez, XL, Betbese, AJ, Roncal, JA
Surgical infections. 2017;(5):588-595
Abstract
BACKGROUND Critically ill surgical patients remain at a high risk of adverse outcomes as a result of secondary peritonitis (SP). The risk is even higher if tertiary peritonitis (TP) develops. Factors related to the development of TP, however, are scarce in the literature. The main aim of our study was to identify factors associated with the development of TP in patients with SP in the intensive care unit (ICU), and also to report differences in microbiologic patterns and antibiotic therapy in patients with the two conditions. PATIENTS AND METHODS A prospective, observational study was conducted at our institution from 2010 to 2014. Baseline characteristics on admission, outcomes, microbiologic results, and antibiotic therapy were recorded for analysis. RESULTS We included 343 patients with SP, of whom TP developed in 185 (53.9%). Almost two-thirds (64.4%) were male; mean age was 63.7 ± 14.3 years, and mean APACHE was 19.4 ± 7.8. In-hospital death was 42.6% (146). Multivariable analysis showed that longer ICU stay (odds ratio [OR]: 1.019; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.004-1.034; p = 0.010), urgent operation on hospital admission (OR: 3.247; 95% CI: 1.392-7.575; p = 0.006), total parenteral nutrition (TPN) (OR: 3.079; 95% CI: 1.535-6.177; p = 0.002) and stomach-duodenum as primary infection site (OR: 4.818; 95% CI: 1.429-16.247; p = 0.011) were factors associated with the development of TP, whereas patients with localized peritonitis were less prone to have TP develop (OR: 0.308; 95% CI: 0.152-0.624; p = 0.001). Higher incidences of Candida spp. (OR: 1.275; 95% CI: 1.096-1.789; p = 0.016), Enterococcus faecium (OR: 1.085; 95% CI: 1.018-1.400; p = 0.002), and Enterococcus spp. (OR: 1.370; 95% CI: 1.139-1.989; p = 0.047) were found in TP, and higher rates of cephalosporin use in SP (OR: 3.51; 95% CI: 1.139-10.817; p = 0.035). CONCLUSIONS Complicated peritonitis remains a cause of a high numbers of deaths in the ICU. The need for TPN, urgent operation on hospital admission, and particularly surgical procedures in the proximal gastrointestinal tract were factors associated with development of TP and may potentially help to identify patients with SP at risk for development of TP. Physicians should be aware concerning multi-drug-resistant germs when treating these patients.